Analysts: Political losses likely
for Democrats in midterm elections

A sign by Bob Kunst, president of Shalom International, protests a conference of the National Jewish Democratic Council Wednesday. (Kristin Maiorano/MNS)

WASHINGTON — On Wednesday morning, a lone Jewish activist stood outside the Hilton Washington, quietly approaching people and handing out fliers to whoever would listen.

Bob Kunst was dressed simply in a plaid shirt and a worn-out hat, a Star of David hanging around his neck.

But his words were considerably less casual. “Obama’s been a big disappointment,” Kunst said. “It’s not change. It’s really Bush III.”

Inside the hotel, the political temperature was warmer for the president. The National Jewish Democratic Council was holding a conference—the kind of meeting where saying something like “We need health care reform” elicits a round of applause.

Kunst, president of Shalom International, said that kind of support isn’t representative of the entire community, claiming Jews are divided between those who support the Democrats and those who don’t.

“Obama can’t win elections–and the Democratic community can’t win elections–if half of the Jewish community runs away,” he said.

The numbers tell another story: Jews are the second-most likely religious group to support the president, with a 64 percent approval rating, according to a Gallup poll released this month. Americans with no specific religious affiliation rank first.

That doesn’t keep the National Jewish Democratic Council from pushing everyone in the Jewish community to vote Democratic.

Democrats are facing significant challenges in the 2010 midterm elections and will likely see some political setbacks, according to two well-known analysts. The majority party has to deliver in several important areas—and soon—to avoid frustrating American voters even further, they said.

Celinda Lake, president of Lake Research, a polling firm that often works with Democrats, and Stu Rothenberg, editor and publisher of the Rothenberg Political Report, addressed Wednesday’s NJDC conference, in a discussion about Democrats’ position in the upcoming midterm elections.

The outlook isn’t great.

Both Lake and Rothenberg predicted a likely loss of Senate seats for Democrats, though they were skeptical that Republicans would make enough gains to reach a majority in either house.

“Turnout is the key and it is a Democratic problem,” Rothenberg said, adding that he doesn’t think young voters will show up to vote this time around.

Lake emphasized this point as well, saying the electorate next year will not only be older, but also less diverse. Unlike Kunst, she didn’t express doubt in maintaining Jewish support for the majority party, but said besides youth, African-Americans —another key demographic for Democrats in last year’s presidential race –are also less likely to hit the polls.

And the races in Congress are certainly not the only important ones, Lake said. In 2010, gubernatorial elections will play a fundamental role in the strength of the Democratic party.

“[There are] 36 governorships up this year,” she said. “It’s going to be a lot easier to win the presidency re-election in 2012 if we’re sitting on Democratic governors.”

In the meantime, there are major policy issues facing Democrats now that could have big repercussions when voters go to the polls next year.

The president’s decision on whether to increase the number of troops in Afghanistan is one that could resonate for Democrats. “There’s significant risk for the president and his party,” Rothenberg said, adding that any decision could end up being the “wrong” one.

It may not be what he decides, so much as when, Lake said, and in this instance sooner is better.

“Barack Obama is a very thoughtful leader,” Lake said. “Unfortunately America is not always responsive to a very thoughtful leader.”

Health care reform proceedings will have long-term political effects as well, both analysts said, and perhaps the greatest will be divisions within the majority party.

If health care legislation passes, it will likely result in an uptick in ratings for the president and Congress, Rothenberg said. However, the current proceedings have highlighted the need to elect more progressive Democrats, Lake added.

“We should not have people out there…as Democrats on watch lists about the president’s health care plan. It’s just absurd,” she said.

And the perception of a divided Democratic party could likely translate to a blow at the polls.

“Voters hate it when the party in control appears to be divided,” Rothenberg said.

According to Kunst, that rift is already evident—and Democrats need to make significant changes to win back the 36 percent of Jews who aren’t satisfied: “The Democratic party, without the Jewish community, doesn’t do it,” he said.