WASHINGTON — Academics, advocates and policy-makers are debating a recent report by California researchers that suggests a legalization program for illegal immigrants would have little impact on the national economy.
The study issued by the Public Policy Institute of California, a nonpartisan think tank, concluded that legalizing most of the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants currently in the United States would have little impact on wages and employment for either immigrant or native-born workers.
It also suggested that legalization would have little effect on either tax revenues or welfare spending.
The findings run counter to other recent studies from UCLA and USC that suggested legalization could give the economy a boost. At a panel convened by the Migration Policy Institute in Washington Monday, some experts disputed the Public Policy Institute study’s findings.
The critics suggested that the 4,486 immigrants studied, all of whom became legal permanent residents in 2003, might not accurately reflect the current illegal immigrant population as a whole. They argued that the study did not take a long enough view, since it looked at immigrants’ circumstances within about a year of legalization.
They also argued that people legalized under existing immigration law could not be compared to people who might be legalized under a comprehensive immigration reform program.
“If it’s done right, immigration reform would not only legalize a much larger population than that legalized in the survey, it would also better regulate employers,” said Randy Capps, a senior policy analyst with the Migration Policy Institute.
Capps said he would expect to see the economy benefit from a legalization program, as employers and workers would be better able to match their needs and skills.
While disagreeing on the economic impacts, both sides agreed that any immigration overhaul should include incentives for newly legalized immigrants to improve their English and job skills and that it should include tougher sanctions on employers who hire illegal immigrants.
They also agreed that legalization could bring some more intangible benefits.
“We don’t think it’s unrealistic to expect those formerly unauthorized immigrants to invest more in their community and in civic life,” said Magnus Lofstrom, one of the authors of the Public Policy Institute report.
That could have long-term benefits, particularly for the immigrants’ children, he said.
The two camps also agreed on the significance of one of the study’s key findings: that more highly skilled and educated immigrants tended to see much greater gains in wages after legalization than their lower-skilled counterparts. However, people with bachelor’s degrees or higher made up about 15 percent of the illegal immigrant population in 2008, according to the report.
The study did not look at state-level data, but Lofstrom said its findings are important for California, with its estimated 2.7 million illegal immigrants.
“I think given that California has the largest population of unauthorized immigrants, the results are extremely relevant to California,” he said.
The Public Policy Institute report suggested that California should lobby for federal funding to reimburse the costs associated with a mass legalization program – for instance, to provide English classes for newly legalized immigrants.
“The cost would be disproportionate to California, so we look at it as this is the time to advocate for funds that would be available,” Lostrom said.
Key points from the Public Policy Institute of California report:
The report based its findings on data from the New Immigrant Survey of immigrants who became legal permanent residents in 2003. About half of the immigrants had been continuously legal, one quarter had entered the country illegally and one-quarter overstayed their visas. The report’s findings, based on this group:
•Low-skilled immigrants saw little increase in wages within about a year of gaining legal status. Immigrants with a bachelor’s degree or higher reported wage gains of 9 to 10 percent after becoming legal permanent residents.
• About 90 percent of the formerly illegal immigrants surveyed reported that they had filed federal income taxes in the year before they were legalized.
• A majority of the formerly illegal immigrants had incomes above 130 percent of the federal poverty line and would not be eligible for most forms of welfare. The report also noted that immigrants are banned from receiving most forms of welfare for five years after gaining legal permanent resident status.