President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney will face off in Colorado on Wednesday. (Creative Commons photo by DonkeyHotey, via Flickr)
WASHINGTON — Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney does not stand much of a chance against President Barack Obama in their first debate, according to likely voters. And that may be a good thing for his campaign.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday said that likely voters expect Obama to win Wednesday’s presidential debate by an almost 2-to-1 margin. Romney needs to use the debate to successfully reframe the election, according to Darrell West, vice president and director of governance studies at the Brookings Institute.
“During the debate, Romney needs to turn the race back into a referendum on Obama,” West said in an email. “Right now, the president has the upper hand due to intemperate remarks from Romney and the GOP nominee will need to soften his image and crystallize the differences between the candidates.”
While 9 out of 10 voters said they planned to watch the debate, only 1 out of 10 said they might change their mind based on what they see. Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said the likely voters’ low expectations for Romney’s performance could help the candidate.
“By 2 to 1, they think Obama will win the debates,” Brown said. “That may be the best piece of news in this data for Mr. Romney because he has low expectations to surpass.”
The data suggests that some people where Romney is trailing among may also be more likely to change their mind based on his debate performance. Only six percent of Republicans say the candidates are likely to do or say anything to change their mind, which suggests they are locked in to Romney.
However, nine percent of Democrats and 16 percent of independents said the candidates were likely to do or say something to make them change their mind about who to vote for. Twelve percent of women and 14 percent of African-Americans, two groups where Romney is behind significantly, said the candidates were likely to change their mind in the debates.
The data also shows that Romney’s deficit among women is currently costing him the lead. He trails Obama by 18 points among likely female voters, who made up 53 percent of voters in 2008. According to exit polls, John McCain lost women by 13 points to Obama in 2008, meaning Obama has increased what was already a sizeable Democratic advantage among those surveyed.
Voters think Obama would do a better job on the economy, health care, national security and handling an international crisis. Romney leads on the budget deficit. The edge Romney had on the economy has disappeared, with Obama now leading by one point despite more than 8 out of 10 likely voters describing the economy as either ‘not so good’ or ‘poor.’
Romney’s disadvantages on the issues may affect what he emphasizes in the debate, with retaking the lead on the economy seen as important for his campaign’s success.
“The one area in which he has an advantage is voters see him as better able to handle the debt questions,” Brown said. “So perhaps he will emphasize that issue. Everything else, voters prefer the president on…even the economy, and that’s an area that Romney used to have a lead, so that is not a good development for Mr. Romney.”
However, Romney is running quite close on the issues. His 10-point lead on ability to handle the budget deficit is larger than any of Obama’s leads on the other issues. Obama has a 9-point lead on handling an international crisis, a 6-point lead on national security and a 5-point lead on health care. His one-point lead on the economy is within the margin of error.
The first presidential debate is scheduled for at 9 p.m. EST Wednesday in Denver.