WASHINGTON–A growing number of Hispanic people, combined with an aging population, could mean big changes in the United States by 2060.
An aging population
The U.S. Census Bureau predicted in 2012 that the eldest age groups will see the most growth, and the most populous age group will actually change. In 2015, people ages 20 to 24 make up the largest age group, but by 2060 the Bureau predicts the largest group will be those between 35 and 39.
“We will have a population of older adults, and this, of course, has all kinds of implications,” said Steve Murdock, a Rice University sociology professor and former director of the U.S. Census Bureau.
Specifically, Murdock said we can expect strains on systems like Medicare and Social Security. The elderly population will be the largest in United States history.
“There’s been a lot of concern over how to fund the retirement of the baby boomers,” said Tim Classen, associate professor of economics at Loyola University’s Quinlan School of Business. “That’s something that’s been known for a while. I think the question is, ‘Why haven’t we done more to prepare for it?'”
Medicare spending has been slowing down – a positive sign, Classen said. But this could have been due to the recession, in which case spending could rise with economic recovery. But the Affordable Care Act has also targeted Medicare to make it more efficient and slow down spending.
A growing Hispanic population
Another soaring population could likely be Hispanic people, especially white Hispanics. Since Hispanic is an ethnicity, not a race, the projected population growth is categorized across races.
Murdock said the current growth of the Hispanic population, along with other minority populations, means a probable decrease in the plurality currently held by the non-Hispanic white population. The growing populations will also see more influence, he said.
Politically and economically, Murdock said we’ll see “greater influence by those groups that are growing most rapidly,” as activities from voting to purchasing goods will be done by larger minority populations.
By percentage, the Asian population will grow more than any other race: almost 103 percent. But by raw numbers, the population started, and remains, relatively small. Murdock said this is the probable reason most media outlets are not discussing the growth of the Asian population and its influence as much as those for Hispanics.
“It’s a minimalization not because of any slight. It’s simply because the numbers are larger for Hispanics,” Murdock said.