Could Michelle Nunn turn the Peach State purple?
That, at least, is the hope of Democrats, who recently allocated $1 million for TV ads for the 47-year-old daughter of former Sen. Sam Nunn, D-Ga. The ads are set to air in Atlanta over the next two weeks.
And Michelle Nunn could have a chance, based on recent polling. For the first time, a poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for Atlanta news station 11Alive, shows Nunn with a narrow edge over Republican opponent David Perdue in the race for retiring Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss’ seat.
Her father, Sam Nunn, was a moderate to conservative Democrat who served in the Senate from 1972 until 1997. Often mentioned as a possible running mate for Democratic presidential candidates, he remains popular among many Georgians.
Perdue is also a member of a Georgia political family; his cousin Sonny Perdue served as a state senator for 11 years and governor from 2003 until 2011.
Still, as Nathan Gonzalez, deputy editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan political publication says, one poll does not an election make.
“This race is fluid and we need to see what subsequent polling data shows. You shouldn’t make any dramatic movements based on any one poll,” he said. “But it’s clear at the same time that Democrats see an opportunity. I think this is emerging as a state that Democrats think they can take over to overcome some losses elsewhere.”
But even if Nunn does manage to edge Perdue on election night, the race – as well as the fight for control of the Senate – might still not be settled until early 2015.
Left, Colorado Republican Congressman Cory Gardner officially announces his candidacy for the Senate at Denver Lumber Company on March 1, 2014, in Denver. Right, Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., speaks during a joint news conference with Trout Unlimited by the shore of the St. Vrain Creek, which was disastrously flooded a year earlier, in Lyons, Colo., on Sept. 12, 2014.
The SurveyUSA poll, which shows the most positive numbers yet for Nunn, has her leading Perdue 48 percent to 45 percent, two points shy of the one vote over 50 percent she would need to avoid a Jan. 6, 2015, runoff election.
The pollsters interviewed 800 Georgians from Oct. 10 through Oct. 13, and allowed for a 4.2 percent margin of error.
Libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford is polling at 3 percent. It seems unlikely that libertarian voters will flock to the more liberal candidate in a two-person race, and it’s unclear whether the Democrats would be able to convince their more casual voters – young people and African-Americans living in Atlanta – to get fired up about returning to the polls less than a week after New Year’s Day.
Recently, Nunn was excoriated by conservative media for declining to say at a debate whether she voted for Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election.
“I’m skeptical right now that either one of them can beat the threshold with the third-party candidate in the race,” said Gonzalez, “But if the race develops and the data proves otherwise, then we’ll reassess our thinking.”
Democrats hope Nunn can win with a majority in November, because a January runoff would likely benefit Republicans, political junkies and Georgians who want to see political ads while watching New Year’s Rockin’ Eve.
UPDATE: Since this story was filed, Candidate Nunn has stated that she did vote for Barack Obama in the presidential election, according to published sources.