WASHINGTON — Republicans are likely to hold their majority in the Senate aided by crucial wins in the toss-up races in Iowa, Maine and South Carolina.
With those wins, Republicans have 48 seats, while the Democrats have 47 seats so far. Democrats need three additional seats should former Vice President Joe Biden win the presidency and Sen. Kamala Harris win the vice presidency, making her Senate president with a tie-breaking vote. Should President Donald Trump win reelection, Democrats would need to gain four seats.
Republicans took the lead Maine Sen. Susan Collins defeated Maine Speaker of the House Sara Gideon on Wednesday.
“In Maine, you had Senator Susan Collins, who held on. She did not lead in the single poll this year. But she hung on in a Biden state by running something like 16% ahead of Biden,” J. Miles Coleman, associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said. .
Coleman said he was surprised that Republican voters were willing to commit to split-ticket voting in Maine, where Biden took the state while Republican Collins retained her closer Senate races.
“What was perhaps one of the surprises is the picture for Republicans down ballot is better than we thought,” he said.
In Iowa, Coleman said, many polls prior to the election had projected a win for Democratic challenger Theresa Green against Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, but respected pollster Ann Selzer predicted last weekend that Ernst would win.
A Democratic strategist who asked not to be named to allow him to speak freely said Senate race outcomes often follow which party wins the presidential vote in a state. Iowa voted for Trump.
Trump looks like he’s gonna hold on in North Carolina,” the strategist said. “Biden was less competitive in South Carolina than originally thought.”
Republicans defended vulnerable senators in those states, while Democratic Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama was unseated by Tommy Tuberville. Democrats were able to flip two seats from GOP incumbents with former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper defeating incumbent Sen. Cory Gardner and Mark Kelly defeating Sen. Martha McSally in Arizona.
The Democratic strategist also said Democrats are satisfied with the gains they made.
“We were able to flip Colorado and Arizona,” he said. “And you know, even two years ago, Arizona was viewed as an impossible feat for Democrats. And so I think it’s a big deal that we’re able to grab both seats.”
There are four Senate races that have yet to be called including in North Carolina, Michigan, Georgia and Alaska as well as the special election in Georgia, which is going to a run-off between incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler and the Rev. Raphael Warnock.