WASHINGTON – The war in Afghanistan is back in the spot light and that’s probably not going to change any time soon. While all Senators agree that General David Petraeus is the right man to lead the Afghan forces, there is much less consensus among politicians and experts about how the United States should proceed with the war.
More specifically, is the July 2011 drawdown date a good idea?
“Probably not. Afghanistan has a lot of serious hurdles to overcome. Mostly, with its inability to win over its own people,” said Brian Fishman counter-terrorism research fellow for the New America Foundation.
Interview with Professor David Tretler, the National War College in Washington D.C.
Is the war in Afghanistan a mostly political problem?
Yes.
If so, why?
We invaded Afghanistan to eliminate al-Qaeda’s base of operations and, hopefully, to deal a death blow to the organization. We largely succeeded at the first, but fell short of the second. To consolidate whatever success we’ve gained, however, we need a government in Afghanistan that is effective, responsive to and representative of the needs of the majority of Afghan citizens, is viewed as legitimate by and thus earns the allegiance of the great bulk of Afghan citizens, and is willing and able to deny sanctuary to a reconstituted al-Qaeda. That is a political problem, plain and simple. We can’t solve the political problem without achieving security in Afghanistan, but even if we manage to establish security, we still have to solve the political problem.
What do you think about the 2011 drawdown date?
I think it makes sense to get out of Afghanistan as quickly as we can without hurting any of our guys or our NATO allies. I don’t think we can solve the political problem noted above. The Afghanis have to solve that problem, and our presence and intervention there hinders more than helps because it distorts the political relationships and process. The down side, of course, is that the solution might be reconstitution of the Taliban government and reestablishment of an al-Qaeda sanctuary.
But would that be worse than the quagmire we’re in now? What’s the solution to the war in Afghanistan?
Admit it’s unwinnable on our terms and extract ourselves as gracefully as we can.
When do you think we should leave?
As I said earlier, as quickly as we can get out without hurting any of our guys or our NATO allies.
Will politicians listen to Petraeus’s advice in December when it’s time for administration review again?
That’s an open question. It all will depend on what has happened in Afghanistan over the preceding six months, and what Petraeus has to say. Unless things take a significantly worse turn in Afghanistan, my guess is that Petraeus will report indications of improving security and ask for patience, and Congress will accede. Rigorous examination of the political problem will likely be largely deferred and/or glossed over.
These issues coupled with the British Government’s announcement on Wednesday that it will withdraw its troops in October compound the problem and complicate the answer. U.S. Marines are scheduled to replace British troops into the Helmand Province, the country’s deadliest district.
“[Deploying more troops] sends a hypocritical message to follow through on an official drawdown in July,” said Malou Innocent, foreign policy analyst at the CATO Institute.
Nine years into the war, politicians and experts don’t agree about when we will leave, when we should leave and how.
When will we leave?
“I think that come mid-2011 there will be an assessment that starts to reduce the presence in Afghanistan, and politically speaking, the administration is going to have to do something” at that time, said Fishman.
Innocent agrees. We won’t be leaving any time soon, he said. “I definitely see the U.S. remaining in Afghanistan in a long term role for at least the next five to ten years.”
When should we leave?
“We don’t need 100,000 foreign troops in a region given the fact that there is no guarantee that we can capture and kill more insurgents than our presence helps to recruit,” said Innocent. But at the end of the day, our military will appear strong “because after all, our enemies are in caves.”
Fishman echoes that sentiment in part adding that the human and financial cost will ultimately be the deciding factor.
“First, we have to determine when the Afghan government is ready to take over, or when the cost is no longer worth it… some people say we’ve already reached that point,” said Fishman.
How should we leave?
“We should withdraw over time and have a residual troop presence,” Innocent said.
But Fishman doesn’t think it will be that easy.
“It’s too soon to tell. We got distracted by Iraq, Afghanistan was an afterthought. The chance of success is low, but the costs of failure are high, he said “We need to give the new strategic concepts we have in place a chance.”
At the end of the day, both experts agree that winning comes down to how we define “win.”
“I don’t think we can win with a capital “W”, but we can win with more narrow goals. . . democracy is not going to happen any time soon in Kabul, that should not be our goal,” said Innocent.